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"CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W/41W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. BANDS OF TSTMS AROUND THE LOW ARE MORE DISTINCT AND STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS VERY LOW AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW WILL MOVE W TO WNW AT ABOUT 10 KT AND REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE WED." NWS MLB also monitoring the waves TWO OTHER FEATURES TO CONSIDER: POORLY INITIALIZED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED 25N 65W WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE THIS SYSTEM POSES NO THREAT IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...ITS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MAY AFFECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MID-LATE WEEK. ALSO...A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEKEND. |