If only we could describe the potential for tropical cyclone development based on the idea that a certain amount of factors equaled a given number. I believe that's what some of the globals do, but what JB is talking about has it origins in some type of global warming or climate change. Heat can't get to the mid-latitudes then it's stuck in the tropics, and when conditions are just ripe voila .

I don't feel very secure making perdictions either, but as of late I've been very lucky, especially playing Texas hold em'. So just maybe some of that luck will transfer to forecasting