Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Thu Aug 04 2005 12:08 AM
Area of Interest - Invest 95L

Tropical low near 12.5N 32W at 04/0400Z moving west at 13 knots for the past 6 hours. System is still small but has maintained good convection. Development is expected to be slow, primarily because of an area of light to moderate shear just to the south of the primary convection. This shear zone is forecast to weaken in the next 24 to 36 hours - and I'd expect development to increase at that time. In about 4 days the system will again encounter increasing shear - probably near 55W - however, long range wind shear forecasts in the tropics are not very reliable. The system has a good chance of reaching TD status in a day or two. Movement likely to be west to west northwest over the next few days.

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