good collection of evidence for the coming pattern, kevin. i wish i knew what the pattern linked to those mini-waves of mjo was, though. i've guessed that it's a delayed response to jitters in the SOI index (or however the two are inter-related. with SOI going positive it looks like the real shift will finally go down in the next week or so.
next question beyond 'when will the storms form' is 'where will they go'. the upcoming pattern gfs keeps advertising is a return to a zonal ridge across the atlantic, with the weakness far to the east, and another over the continent. i'm not sure whether to believe it.
HF 1754z07august