WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 31 2005 02:29 AM
Off the Florida coast?

From local WPB Met.:

Well the situation does and can happen when we get later into hurricane season and into October that fronts begin to move down into Florida but because of the warm waters yet these fronts usually stall. In this case Katrina becomes part of the entire hemispheric weather pattern and overall becomes an extratropical low..since this is a strong system for this time of year a front this early is unusual given the front coming toward us and the very warm waters now any front that breaks off from the parent low of any kind up north and high building north and west of us this can take any broken or left behind front to turn into an interverted trough and in most cases a tropical low can develop.. conditions are fair to good in the NW Bahamas and upper level winds are of a weak shearing state which means we will need to keep watching for this front as it moves toward us Thursday and Friday it will stall just offshore and the GFS has been consistent every run on the development of a tropical like low..this is expected to be held in place by a weak trough at mid levels and may drift southwest with time getting close to our coast by later this holiday weekend or early next week..if it sits near the very warm waters it can develop into a tropical storm or worse..right now though the model even adjusting for errors on pressure development intensity keeps it a weak low but the potentialis there for a tropical system to worry for us along our east coast...it may sit for 2 to 3 days before finally lifting northward late next week...It is important to keep watch on this...not to panic or call for the doomsday event but we always must keep on our toes with any situation like this one when it is very consistent on the models too...the gfs..!!



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