14/9/4
ENSO I'm thinking will continue to run near neutral, with the persistent weak warm anomalies in the western Pacific. The AMO/PDO pairing is overall favorable, like it will remain for the coming decade or two. Not too keen on QBO phase, so ignoring that.
Based more on a climatology of past active seasons, this follow-on could go strong or weak. There is precedent for both. Since I don't see an El Nino coming on (though it's not possible to say with certainty how that will go), will go with an active season, but not as intensely active as the 2005 season was. I don't think we'll see quite the Western Atlantic focus that we did this year. Probably more normal with the Eastern Atlantic going active in August. Again, assuming ENSO neutral, MJO can activate and cluster the activity some.
Will be watching for the persistence of blocking type events. Even during the summer they can lower heights in the mid latitudes.. which weakens the trades and lets storms form more easily in the deep tropics.
The tendency for hurricanes to form/get far west and strike the U.S. this year according to Gray's bunch hinged on the Pacific SST profile, with a warm central/west Pacific keeping heights low in the west, and high in the east. If that persists, or very warm SSTs become apparent in the Atlantic in the spring... I'll tick everything up a notch. If El Nino starts coming on, or La Nina for that matter.. that'll change things a lot as well.
HF 0313z22november