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I actually started to gather my thoughts on this annual subject about two months ago. I'm thinking 13/7/2 or 13/8/3 - haven't made up my mind yet, but I'm leaning toward the latter if you are looking for some forecast numbers. Only a couple of primary reasons - 1) I expect a colder winter over the southeast U.S., so a colder Atlantic basin next season, and 2) Climatology (thinking 1934). Haven't really looked at ENSO yet, but I'd anticipate a neutral SST state. What really surprises me is that HF and I are actually rather close for a change! Cheers, ED |