I said I wouldn't change my numbers after Dec unless we had some subtropical storms, and I'll stick to that.

First named storm? Ummm...not 'til July 1st. I picked the beginning of a holiday weekend, so if Mother Nature will oblige, I'll have time to watch it inbetween the picnic at the lake. :-) Let's just say it's my way of being patriotic. Probably not the first pick of anyone who happens to be a professional met specializing in tropical weather! Who would want to work on a big holiday weekend.

Of course that's probably the worst date to pick. If we have an early start to the season, that would mean a June date (HF what were you thinkin' there with the end of May), but if we have a normal start to the season, it'll be further out in July.

Do I have a reason for picking July? Not really -- no expertise to do so. But look at the jet stream position over the ATL and all the shear. And even if the ITCZ has kicked off, it's still below 5N. And SSTs not anywhere near last year. And the mother lode of warm water in the NW Carib is cooling down lately (what's that all about). And it's 40 degrees and raining here in MSP today. Summer's going to take her time showing up.