I'll keep my numbers the same. Scientifically, osscilations in patterns tend not to be extreme from year to year. However, with fairly average SSTs, I believe it won't be quite as active as last year. The cool spring won't affect mid-late season as the SSTs warm up quickly and the continued higher global temperature trend increases the numbers of hurricanes over a normal season, though not as extreme as we saw last year. The likely hood of lots of named storms is high, but I don't expect them to be as strong systems.

Here are my winter numbers, unchanged: 23/9/2

Now, first storm: The cool spring will delay the start slightly, so I expect the first names storm in the 3rd week of June.