Clark
(Meteorologist)
Wed Jul 19 2006 03:06 AM
Re: Beryl Now

It really has been attached to a frontal zone the whole time, just not as much as yesterday's feature. It's a subtle designation, though. The approaching upper low from the east will probably start to shear Beryl tomorrow; today, it was just far enough away from the storm to provide a diffluent environment aloft on the eastern side, promoting convective development. Couple that with the approaching shortwave from the NW and Beryl is really between a rock and a hard place.

There's the potential to see a weak vort max form over the Ohio River valley over the next 12hr and swing toward the storm. I don't think this one is want for land; if it gets there, it'll be a weak non-convective vortex steered by the low level flow. Most likely scenario: Beryl gets caught up in the westerlies in the next day or two and heads out to sea. Second-most likely scenario (and not very likely at that): binary interaction with the upper-low to its SE, with the two pivoting around each other. Beryl is accompanied by a mid-level circulation of dubious nature, so it should be deep enough to feel the effects of either feature.

Intensity, as such, should be held in check...NHC on the high end of things with 50kt, I think, for the time being. That intensity is possible, though, as (if) it accelerates to the NE and storm-relative shear decreases before SSTs dramatically cool. For now, though, it's something to watch.

Nothing else out there is threatening tonight.



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