A potent tropical wave exited the west African coast earlier today. It is a large system centered near 10N 19W at 12/00Z. Wind shear is anticipated to be light for its journey westward.

The GFS has overplayed the intensity of the trough that the model depicts as creating a weakness in the Atlantic ridge near 60W in about a week. The 18Z run of the model takes the associated cold front and moves it south through the entire Florida peninsula late on the 16th - and thats not at all likely to happen - far too early in the fall season for a frontal event to sweep southward through the entire state.

This suggests that the trough itself has been over-emphasized by the model and is not likely to cause enough of a weakness in the ridge to capture what what will likely be the eventual 'Helene'. With low shear and no apparent upper-level obstructions, this system seems to have the initial potential to become a significant storm - but thats still a long way down the road. For now, lets just say that this wave has an excellent chance for further development - with the possibility of a long westward trek.
ED