| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 04:23 PM |
Subtropical Gabriel, no longer 99L; still some concern for East Coast
|
We have what appears to be a book-end vortex attempting to develop in the vicinity of the NC/SC Coast. Both satellite and radar are beginning to show a cyclonic turning amid the on-going convection that has been lingering there for the past 18 to 24 hours.
Radar: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=CLX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Satellite: ...See below
This feature was originally triggered by a stalling frontal zone. Originally a baroclinic system altogether, this now appears to be entering a phase-transition because the air mass north to south through the axis of weak rotation is becoming less differentiable. This, while convection persists, needs to be monitored so long as we have a general southwest wind field beneath the axis of frontalysis and east-northeast wind above, which provides a natural cyclonic convergence in the low levels.
Two key factors:
- Shear remains low in the deep layer analysis. Moreover, the upper level winds are somewhat divergent while being light in that area. This can be seen using
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-avn.html ..and clicking the radial button that states, HDW-High, which overlays the wind field on the image. There is no floater assigned to this feature but NHC has given it a mention in the 11am so perhaps an Invest is in the works. Given to some cyclonic presentation emerging a circulation is likely in the process of forming and an Invest would have more success at that time. - Oceanic heat content; ample availability in the area as is suggested via:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/maps/sst/2007090200_sst_AB.png Additionally, we all know the Gulf Stream is in that area and that supplies an artery pumping rich fuel directly into any fledging system. Sometimes if there is an offshore component, cooler shelf water can upwell along the immediate Coast in that vicinity. That does not appear to be the case now as buoy data indicates temperatures ranging between 81 and almost 90F!
Whatever develops there it is likely to move very slowly and be there for awhile. The larger scale synoptic evolution does not provide for very many steering signals. There is a ridge tending to develop surface and aloft, moving off the Mid Atlantic and New England states and into the NW Atlantic, from day-3 through day-6. That should help pin whatever is there in place, or perhaps even push it SE or SW. Some of the models actually do suggest that occurring, showing a slow but gradual development only drifting around in that area.
First step...get a system going.
| orlandocanewatcher |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 08:20 PM |
|
Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast
|
So basically we could have a system develop and meander around for a while and then either curve back into Florida or further north towards S.Carolina?? Does that seem to be the basic idea?? What are the chances that this become a hurricane? Or are we looking at closer to a tropical storm??
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 08:26 PM |
|
|
Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast
|
Looking at the current radar system of the storm system off of Georgia, it looks as though to be the reason for the severe storms that are currently in Georgia's Coast and also in Northern Florida. This storm system is causing severe thunderstorms and strong winds in areas over Northern Florida (Daytona Beach is under a watch) Looking at the radar, it looks as though it is trying to form into a depression or a storm system, and it now appears to be rotating the way a hurricane would, not a cyclone (however I could be wrong) But it looks to be an overall healthy system that is forming. We will just have to keep a close watch on this storm systym over the next few days.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=CLX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
| Loudest Tundra in Florida |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 08:30 PM |
|
|
Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast
|
This seems to remind me of "Jeanne" IIRC in 04. How it just circled around for some time. No telling what this thing is gonna do
EDIT: Watching the loop, and trying to find a C.O.C somewhere, I see that it is def. drifting SE.
| nc_tropical_wx79 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 11:15 PM |
|
|
Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast
|
Been at work all day but how is the system off of the southeast coast doing? is it still going strong or has it weakened and also will it come under high shear in the upcoming future? (Sorry for all the questions).
| Loudest Tundra in Florida |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Sep 03 2007 01:14 AM |
|
|
Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast
|
It looks as if it is encountering quite a bit of rather unfavorable conditions right now.
(Forecast Lounge material was removed.)
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Sep 03 2007 04:49 AM |
|
Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast
|
Quote:
It looks as if it is encountering quite a bit of rather unfavorable conditions right now.
(Forecast Lounge material was removed.)
Nothing has changed in terms of the deep layer analysis. The shear is still generally low. Oceanic heat content is of course high. There are some new convective elevments presently erupting near the southern aspect of what appears to be an emerging cyclonic circulation.
Unfortunately, we don't have a Floater assigned at this time. There may be data sources out there but I have been using: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html ...and then clicking the HDW-high radial button to show the upper level winds, which are divergent over the area -- i.e., favorable.
The models are suggesting this as still quite plausible but they take a long time to do so. Important to remind folks that the models are not really well-performed during genesis phases of TCs. So, they may belay this until they are better initialized. That may occur when a system becomes better defined and enters the initialization array.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Sep 03 2007 06:34 PM |
|
Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast
|
Update...
Convection persists in associating with the area of disturbed weather situated along the tail end of a slowly decaying frontal boundary, which extends seaward from approximately 50miles east of the central Georgia Coast. Nestled in this vicinity is a region of slightly improved cyclonic organization.
The general parameters are essentually unchanged for now:
Oceanic heat content is large in that vicinity -- positive
Upper air analysis suggests evolving divergent vectors in the 200mb level -- positive
Pressures remain high in that region -- negative
Forecast models:
They are showing trends toward a converged opinion as of the 12z run this morning, that this region will likely continue to evolve and eventually lead to a Tropical Depression. Models typically will not perform stellar during the genesis phase of any given TC (Dean was a startling exception rather than the rule), so timing the birth of this feature is inherently going to be low skill. The general consensus of the models is to drift a beta low toward the east-southeast where it will slowly gather purer tropical characteristics. By 72-84 hours, the NAM has a depression centered near 70/30. (*The NAM is a low skill predictor for tropical weather phenomenon) This is intriguing because the GFS also places a similarly defined system at that location and time; from that point forward in time, it then shows a west movement with some implications for development as it approaches the Eastern Seaboard by as near as 120 - 132 hours. The most glaring solution is that of the CMC, which shows also this similar solution through 84 hours as the GFS and NAM, but then it does something interesting: It bombs this into an intense hurricane and has it moving due N about 50 to 100 miles east of Cape Hatteras, NC, by 132 hours. (*The CMC is also a low skill predictor for tropical weather phenomenon, tending to over-production). The 12z ECM is also now developing this system close to the same location as the NAM, GFS and CMC, and in similar timing. It also shows it moving back west and at least implies intensification. I have not seen the 12z UKMET.
Visible imagery is showing a general albeit weak for now, cyclonic motion, with some indication of a mid-level circulation displaced east of the weakly discernable broad low level rotation. However, given to:
The persistence of convection and on-going phase transition from barolcinic to barotropic
The favorable parameters discussed
The emerging model consensus
slow development is quite plausible if not likely. Can never be certain about these things.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Sep 03 2007 07:22 PM |
|
Re: Region of interest just off the SE U.S. Coast
|
Area of interest off the SE U.S. Coast is officially declared an Invest. Floater assigned:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html
Now that the closer inspection avails, it does appear there is some light to moderate westerly UL shear in the area that was not readily discernable from the other vantage points. This is another reason to assume slow intensification.
| ltpat228 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 03 2007 08:55 PM |
|
|
99L
|
Here is the link for a NRL visual on 99L; then another link for the computer model.
NRL visual:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...s/microvap/dmsp
Computer model:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200799_model.html
| nc_tropical_wx79 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 04 2007 05:06 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 99L
|
is 99l still attached to the front or is it a low on it's own yet?
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 04 2007 05:52 AM |
|
Re: 99L
|
Quote:
is 99l still attached to the front or is it a low on it's own yet?
It appears I am the only Met frequenting this thread...
The answer is no. The recent analysis is that the stationary boundary has washed out and we now have a low with a surface trough subtended S approximately 77W/30N.
This is encouraging for this system's genesis phase as it means the phase-transition is becomeing more purely barotropic and less baroclinic.
Moreover, another encouraging sign is that there is new convective elements exploding close to the center of circulation.
There is still shear impacting the area, however, so this is not in any rapid intensification by a long shot.
Models are still indicating development off the 00z runs. The GFS has a TC suggestion and the the oft' over-zealous CMC still tries to develop a significant TC. The NAM still suggests steady development while drifting the vortex ESE to the eastern Bahamas.
I have a funny feeling this system will make headlines! There is way more model support than not for this to spin up and the key for me is the evolving favorable UL wind field together with way more oceanic heat content than knows what to do with. At that time, about 66+ hours out, this is probably going to develop stronger than models in keeping with the usual 'gets deeper and more intense than expected' bias that pervades results of both machine and man expectations as of late.
| Hurricane29 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 04 2007 12:01 PM |
|
|
Re: 99L
|
Quote:Quote:
is 99l still attached to the front or is it a low on it's own yet?
It appears I am the only Met frequenting this thread...
The answer is no. The recent analysis is that the stationary boundary has washed out and we now have a low with a surface trough subtended S approximately 77W/30N.
This is encouraging for this system's genesis phase as it means the phase-transition is becomeing more purely barotropic and less baroclinic.
Moreover, another encouraging sign is that there is new convective elements exploding close to the center of circulation.
There is still shear impacting the area, however, so this is not in any rapid intensification by a long shot.
Models are still indicating development off the 00z runs. The GFS has a TC suggestion and the the oft' over-zealous CMC still tries to develop a significant TC. The NAM still suggests steady development while drifting the vortex ESE to the eastern Bahamas.
I have a funny feeling this system will make headlines! There is way more model support than not for this to spin up and the key for me is the evolving favorable UL wind field together with way more oceanic heat content than knows what to do with. At that time, about 66+ hours out, this is probably going to develop stronger than models in keeping with the usual 'gets deeper and more intense than expected' bias that pervades results of both machine and man expectations as of late.
Question...
How far south do you think 99L will move?Is there any chance of a katrina like track.Right now i see it drifting SE.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 04 2007 03:10 PM |
|
|
Re: 99L
|
Well Hurricane29, it depends on how the high drifts west and how strong it gets. If the high is strong as of what now most models are showing, this will be a remembered strom for folks in the Northeast. If the high is weak, the storm will push through it and head out to sea affecting nothing but the fish. I put more confidence in the reliable models that show this storm "Gabreille" a threat to the USA. EVERYBODY on the east coast needs to watch this storm, Typhoon is right, this will make headlines. This storm reminds me ALOT of Gustav in 2002
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at20027.asp
If I remember, I believe Gustav was pushed by a strong High and then caught up with a front saving my butt from a strike in NY at the time. Anyways getting back on topic, it appears that 99L (Gabrielle) will become subtropical later today, looks good, outflow is good, and the center is right next to that bloom of convection. We'll have to see what happens in time with it.
| orlandocanewatcher |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 04 2007 03:12 PM |
|
Re: 99L
|
I see that a few of the spaghetti models still have this thing moving to Cen Fla...how accurate are those models?? I know that it is harder for them to pick up on a developing system....just curious what you think the chances are?? What is the set up with the high and any troughs coming through? I am not a met, only read a lot of what you guys post...so thanks so much for all your help!! Also, what kind of time frame are we looking at??
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 04 2007 03:45 PM |
|
|
Re: 99L
|
Not only are the models all over the place as far as direction, they are also FAR apart in speed of that movement (Clark's models show time intervals). The two models that show it moving in my direction have it in my vicinity either 72 or 120 hours from now....that is a HUGE window. I think we are going to have to wait until more models have a solid fix on this system and that won't likely occur until it shows signs of better organization than it has now. Maybe by the 5th model run, we will get more of a concensus (hopefully).
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 04 2007 03:47 PM |
|
|
Re: 99L
|
It is way too early to tell when of if this system will develop or where it is going. None of the models seem to have a grip on it, it could be anywhere from Central Florida to NY or out to sea at this time. The system is under about 20 knots of shear now, so its development will be slow if at all. My guess is it won't be until late Thursday or Friday before we know what (if) is happening.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 04 2007 05:26 PM |
|
Re: 99L
|
Quote:
Question...
How far south do you think 99L will move?Is there any chance of a katrina like track.Right now i see it drifting SE.
It is impossible to say with any certainty...as you well know.
Possibilities, assuming this does succeed in developing, range from slow eastward component drift, to then resuming a north motion well-enough offshore to not be a significant impactor beyond surf, to eastward component drift, to then retrograding west (perhaps even after performing a loop) as a more serious eventual threat.
Most guidance show solutions at or in between these themes, but ALL develop this at this point in time. The NAM's 06z and 12z solutions blended together with the 00z CMC would spell some signficant trouble for New England.
One additional concern for me is that warm SST anomalies that are currently aligning along most of the Coastal waters and extending eastward to beyond 70W. The following link elaborately shows this, and some phenomenal sigma values along and the preceived path of this would-be system:
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/sst2.png
The integrated heat content is obviously no especially high once we get N of the Gulf Stream recurving latitudes (roughly 37N), but the shelf waters have been as high as almost 80F -- even as far N as the New York bite waters:
Currently, we see they are not, but the 80F isotherm is abeam of the Del Marva latitudes and if a TC were to evolve with the ferocity of the CMC/NAM blend, it would have a healthy fuel source to considerably high latitude; then enters the concern for how quickly it is moving and if the shelf waters can have enough time to assert very important weakening in time. Bob is an example of this, as he was still deepening slightly even after crossing the gradient from the Gulf Stream to the shelf waters S of Long Island.
Confidence is high in the overall larger-scale synoptic evolution, and confidence is growing that there will indeed by a TC to monitor. To pick each concern apart:
NAO teleconnector has entered a period of upward rising values. That means the tendencies to lift the exit latitudes of the westerlies from off the N/A continent is present. Therefore, seeing the operational models converged on a ridge amplfication first along the Mid Atlantic and New England areas, then bulging seaward toward the east-northeast is increasingly plausible relative to this teleconnector signal. This also enhances the plausibility for trapping features in the regions surrounding 30N/70W.
TC: Currently NHC has advertised this as a non-tropical area of low pressure. I find that interesting because my own evaluation late last night had this as pretty well entered into a symmetric phase transition in terms of environmental conditions. The trouble is, shear I think is masking some of this. However, the frontalysis that was in that vicinity had completed by evening last night, such that DPs north to south across the axis of apparent cyclonic circulation had become homogenized. Nevertheless, whether it is or is not more or less tropical is probably less important at this hour. Shear continues to impact this and will continue to do so in the shorter terms. Once said ridge development gets underway, this will weaken this NW shear markedly and we'll see the deep layer field lurch rather abruptly into a more favorable regime. That will probably take place in the 30 hour time range and onwards. Until then, this will probably (but not certainly) remain a fledging interest with lots of modeling debate. The TCs best hope in surviving this first day or so of shear assault is to bodily move east-southeast such as to tap into a lower "relative" shear result. ...Ironically, a more important threat to the EC may require moving away...
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 04 2007 06:27 PM |
|
Re: 99L
|
Well this has been a easy forecasting hurricane season so far. 99L might be alittle more difficult but still I feel straight forward. Lets look at it:
Right now its a LLC inbeded from a decay frontal trough. The center has picked up enough Tropical Characteristics to be at least subtropical in nature. Inhibiting factor so far on this is the shear. Models feel this will slow down and turned NW after meandering for a day...some say it will head back to florida. Lets look at why this wont come back to florida. 1 foremost is the ridge will not lie over the midatlantic...its more over the NW atlantic...moreso the ridge will slide to bermuda and have a SE-NW orientation with it. Now in the Nowcasting side of things we have a trough digging in just north of the system...this should swing 99L in the near term more NE later tonight into Weds....and as this trough weakens the Ridge should develop over the NW atlantic thru the end of the week and migrate south towards bermuda taking anything NW. I think NC has the best chance of getting brushed by this then SE N.E. but another cold front and stronger will slide into N.E. and probably keep the main center off shore. This is though more then 5 days out and anything really more then 3 days is unclear. Its not certain that this will move into the Outerbanks directly. As the 0Z runs come out later tonight and more data is collected things will be more clearer tomorrow. If that Nowcast shortwave was just a few deg ahead of 99L ...99L would of been more S and SE and would of posed more of a threat to Florida and SC. Right now.. its just not .
scottsvb
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 04 2007 09:28 PM |
|
Re: 99L
|
Looking at the 5p.m. sats...I don't see any thing to be concerned about here...to be sure there is a low level, but nothing above that.. shear from the NW is pronounced and dry air wrapping in too...Its direction now seems to be north. I give it less than 3 to develop.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 04 2007 09:57 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 99L
|
Some of the models are develping 99L ranging from a TS to a Cat 3. Really too early to tell as the models keep changing. When and if there is something to grab on to, we'll see.
Did you notice oil went up today on Dr. Grey's forcast of 6 more storms? The way I read it, Felix was one of them.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 05 2007 12:15 AM |
|
|
Re: 99L
|
I think they have the intensity off... Ive seen the models and just can't buy into that intensity right now.. not from a system that has so much shear it is having problems forming.
That being said.. if the HWRF said it was going to be that strong I might give it more creedence. The track has been off with it on Dean but the intensity was on the money sadly.
Watching and waiting to see a real center come forward.
| nc_tropical_wx79 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 05 2007 01:05 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 99L
|
at 5pm you gave it (99l) less than a 3 but how is 99l looking now as of 9pm tonight? does it still get only a 3?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 05 2007 01:29 AM |
|
Re: 99L
|
NRL as well as dvorak # of 1.5 has it at 25 knts (29 mph) Speculation from HF from the main thread that it may be a td already as well as what I have read from other sites. Does anyone think given the overall structure and shear with all the dry air to the nw of the assumed center, that this could td before morning or perhaps a recon invest? I also understand that a recon is scheduled for tomorrow. Anyone have any updates?
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 05 2007 02:04 AM |
|
Re: 99L
|
We have a long way to go with 99L, but, for what it's worth, the recent models have all shifted to recurvature before the EC. See the main page for more.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 05 2007 03:55 AM |
|
|
Re: 99L
|
Officially still an invest at 11pm. Convection isn't over the center of vorticity.
However, satellite IR presentation is steadily getting better and NHC said they might need to initiate it sometime tomorrow. They still aren't sure if it will be tropical or subtropical.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 05 2007 05:32 AM |
|
Re: 99L
|
I might have to repost this every six hours.
Well this has been a easy forecasting hurricane season so far. 99L might be alittle more difficult but still I feel straight forward. Lets look at it:
Right now its a LLC inbeded from a decay frontal trough. The center has picked up enough Tropical Characteristics to be at least subtropical in nature. Inhibiting factor so far on this is the shear. Models feel this will slow down and turned NW after meandering for a day...some say it will head back to florida. Lets look at why this wont come back to florida. 1 foremost is the ridge will not lie over the midatlantic...its more over the NW atlantic...moreso the ridge will slide to bermuda and have a SE-NW orientation with it. Now in the Nowcasting side of things we have a trough digging in just north of the system...this should swing 99L in the near term more NE later tonight into Weds....and as this trough weakens the Ridge should develop over the NW atlantic thru the end of the week and migrate south towards bermuda taking anything NW. I think NC has the best chance of getting brushed by this then SE N.E. but another cold front and stronger will slide into N.E. and probably keep the main center off shore. This is though more then 5 days out and anything really more then 3 days is unclear. Its not certain that this will move into the Outerbanks directly. As the 0Z runs come out later tonight and more data is collected things will be more clearer tomorrow. If that Nowcast shortwave was just a few deg ahead of 99L ...99L would of been more S and SE and would of posed more of a threat to Florida and SC. Right now.. its just not .
scottsvb
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 05 2007 05:35 AM |
|
Re: 99L
|
Quote:
I think they have the intensity off... Ive seen the models and just can't buy into that intensity right now.. not from a system that has so much shear it is having problems forming.
That being said.. if the HWRF said it was going to be that strong I might give it more creedence. The track has been off with it on Dean but the intensity was on the money sadly.
Watching and waiting to see a real center come forward.
Not sure how one can certain of intensity suspicion considering that intensity is the lowest skill of all predictive efforts regarding tropical systems.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 05 2007 05:47 AM |
|
Re: 99L
|
Quote:
NRL as well as dvorak # of 1.5 has it at 25 knts (29 mph) Speculation from HF from the main thread that it may be a td already as well as what I have read from other sites. Does anyone think given the overall structure and shear with all the dry air to the nw of the assumed center, that this could td before morning or perhaps a recon invest? I also understand that a recon is scheduled for tomorrow. Anyone have any updates?
I don't think we can be certain this is a depression already. There are baroclinic signatures present and so long as that is the case, there inserts a question as to the storm's physical make-up. The term "subtropical low" is probably more accurate, or subtropical depression if that is what is being referred?
I have posted topical related to phase-transition and am admittedly a little biased so far in my own interpretation of this happening faster. There was a narrow window earlier this evening and late afternoon, when the UL winds demonstrated a sudden organization into a jet core pointing NE. This actually stopped the "NW" shear, and aligned just NW of a large canopy of strong divergence, separate, and over the center of active convection. This led me to believe we had two distinct scenarios in play that were simply a matter of being very close in proximity to oneanother. Fact of the matter is, there may have been two identifications temporarilty. But, the synoptic-scale forcing of said jet, and, perhaps a depression forming just barely SE of that jet axis have since appeared to team up, belaying the purer phase-transition.
So, yes and no. I think this is a probably a weak subtropical low feeding off some very high oceanic heat content in the area, while getting an ascent assist by the evactuative capacity of the jet max. This appears to be utilizing the dynamic processes of both worlds -- hense hybrid, subtropical, or whatever one wants to call it.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 05 2007 06:52 PM |
|
|
Re: 99L
|
For what it's worth, T numbers are now 2.0/2.0, I'd certainly consider it a sheared depression. But as typically the case, NHC waits to call a system a system during the year (more likely to upgrade during post season analysis). So they may wait for convection to get closer to the center before calling it (which means it may skip ever being an official 'depression').
Of course the naval site has a TCFA up for 99L but that's still a coin flip.
has anyone else noticed that old 98l is still out there spinning away?
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 06 2007 12:55 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 99L
|
It's funny everyone on wunderground and on here are writing this storm off and you just wait.. because the same thing with Felix is gonna happen with this one, it will start to develop later on today or tonight.. write when everybody looses faith.. you know, shear is expected to weaken, Just give it some time folks, don't write it off yet, when a storm becomes tropical it WILL loose convection and maybe even structure but once it's fully tropical and out of the shear zone, it will develop. The shear is decreasing a tad, and it's moving a bit southeast into marginal or even favorable conditions, however I expect a tropical storm or minimal huricane at landfall around the Carolinas, not a catgeory 3. I'll give it a 7/10 chance of development, lets see what happens today, it seems like some minimal convection is trying to wrap around the center.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 06 2007 03:32 PM |
|
Re: 99L
|
Underground has alot of wishcasting and no knowledgable good Mets that post there. Im not talking about the blogers. Im not so sure this will be tropical..but still my path is straight forward with a turn towards Cape Hatteras..brushing by to the east and then heading NE out to sea.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 06 2007 03:45 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 99L
|
I agree, models are in straight agreement (except for the clips but that's a climatology model), anyways.. any of you remember a very similiar storm 5 years ago? Subtropical Strom Gustav developed right around where this is.. well, maybe a bit more north.. it took the same exact path models are taking this..
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at20027.asp
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 06 2007 03:49 PM |
|
Re: 99L gains model support and growing concern for East Coast
|
Well, I have to admit...my opinion on this has changed...
I do not speak for anyone else, of course, but I believe there is reason here, quite valid actually, to believe nothing is going to evolve of this. This phrase people like to use, "Storm Cancel" seems more plausible than not.
1) The upper level synoptic evolution has changed. 2 days ago...the modeled solutions did not carry this TUTT, now, they do. That has to immediately hoist a red flag.
2) Upper level lows are, excuse the cliche, notoriously poorly handled. Why? Because for some reason the physics in the models seem to have a problem handling their internal workings, but also how those workings relate to the outside environment.
3) Enters a fledgling little sickly TD infant caught up in the throws of its circulatoin field? Not likely...
4) Moreover, now that the GFS has stipulated to the presence of this TUTT, look what it is doing with it AND the circulation of this TD seed? It is retrograding them west toward the SE Coast, in tandem, such that this seed never really gets into a favorable environment as previously thought:
06z H500 evolution: http://ggweather.com/loops/gfs_06z_500_all.htm
06z MSLP evolution: http://ggweather.com/loops/gfs_06z_slp_all.htm
...We cannot expect this would-be TD to end up in a favorable environment when it is entangled with any such retrograding TUTT, and that is factually what the GFS is suggesting here. The ECM is not really different than this, either and there we have it. A model consensus for confusion more than anything else, because unless the TUTT its self somehow goes through a phase transition with extreme rapidity -- not likely to happen -- this system more likely becomes a victom of emergent perturbation -- or in other words, perhaps the TUTT emerged spontaneously from those old chaos lessons we learned in our Junior year.
There has been a surplus of diurnal convection in the deep south and MV the last 2 days and I noticed immediately down sream there was a sharpened mid and upper level ridge curvature along with stronger winds.. These dove SE off the SE U.S. Coast and I think literally imparted a physical exertion of forcing a trough response due to "buckling" of the flow. I do not believe the models handled that synoptic forcing by latent heat flux of convection taking place -- the case needs a further study.
We'll see...but I am not at this time altogether very confident for any tropical rendition of what is going on out there. Even the 12z NAM and its oft' intensity lust has backed way off and has a pultry 1000'ish mb low nearing the Carolinas.
Hopefully, this TUTT does not go on to interfere and this TD goes ahead and turns into the tempest that everyone seems to want. But, at this moment, that is definitely the lesser of the probabilities.
John
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 06 2007 11:58 PM |
|
|
Re: 99L gains model support and growing concern for East Coast
|
How suddenly September 2007 seems to have stopped, and 2006 seems to have replaced it. For now.
Some "pictures are worth a thousand words" before & afters of 99L:
Before:
After:
Invest Pancake
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Sep 08 2007 02:54 AM |
|
Re: 99L gains model support and growing concern for East Coast
|
Subtropical declaration is quite fitting for this feature considering my own concerns recently posted in this thread. It's interaction with the TUTT have led directly to it evolution in this regard...
The question now becomes, will it complete phase transition and become purely tropical? Timing landfall will be critical in determing that... If it moves quickly toward the Coast and comes onboard than naturally it will only transition into a non-entity. If moves slower than modeled remains seaward for long period of time, than it will be sitting over some of the hottest waters (Gulf Stream) in the Atlantic Basin and a transition will likely occur.