Interesting SST forecast issued by NCEP yesterday - a complete reversal from earlier forecasts. They now expect El Nino to weaken considerably in February and ENSO to become neutral by March or April. Earlier forecasts had carried a strong El Nino through the Spring - thus one of the major suppressing factors on activity may no longer exist at the start of the season.

NWS NCEP SST Forecast

Of course next month the outlook could flip-flop again, but if it doesn't, and the upper shear relaxes, we could experience a season that would be quite a bit more active than last year.
Cheers,
ED