I'm starting this a little early this year for those of you that want to make a long-range guesstimate. Last year most of the forecasts were way too high - partly influenced by the record season in 2005 and significantly affected by the onset of an unexpected El Nino. There are now enough good indicators to gain some early insight into the upcoming tropical cyclone season in the Atlantic basin. This is simply a follow-on to HanKFranK's previous thread. On March 10th, Tropical Storm Research upped their 2007 outlook to 17/9/4 and their next forecast will be issued on April 3rd. Colorado State University (Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray) called for 14/7/3 in their initial December outlook and their next forecast will be issued on April 5th.

If you want to take a shot a beating the pros on this, get your own forecast in by April 2nd . Add your rationale if you wish, but its not required.

Although we had an early start to the winter season in November, after a mild December and January, the coldest temperatures of the season in the Southeast again occurred in February so I don't see much chance for an early season storm (and that thought will probably come back to haunt me). El Nino has become La Nina in the tropical east Pacific and with the anticipation of less windshear in the tropical Atlantic, an increase in tropical cyclone activity seems likely for the 2007 season.

While a moderate La Nina is expected to be in place for the entire season, it is also worth noting that the positive SST anomalies in the Atlantic are anticipated to decline from May through August. If the tropical Atlantic runs slightly cooler than normal during the upcoming Summer, some of the initial high-side forecasts may not verify.. My own thoughts haven't changed any since January 16th, so I'm going with 14/8/4 this year, with a distribution as follows:

M/J = 0; J = 1; A = 2; S = 5; O = 4; N = 2; D = 0

Analog Years: Difficult to find any - perhaps 1998 comes closest to expectations.

Threat Areas: A broad spectrum this year - including the Gulf coast, the Southeast and the Northeast. I expect an active (but average) Cape Verde season.

Please limit your posts in this thread to your own forecasts and reasoning (if any) for the 2007 season. If you've already posted your thoughts in the previous thread, you can update those forecasts here. We'll use both threads to see who did the best at the end of the season. Give it your best shot!
Cheers,
ED