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I wish to weigh anchor and join the multitude making Hurricane seasonal Forecasts. I really don't believe anyone has significant skill in this arena and last year's forecasts rather clearly bear that out. Hurricanes are not distributed in the Gaussian "bell" curve. Nonetheless, I'll make the forecast the there will be eighteen named storms, including a couple of early ones impacting Florida, due to a strong early Bermuda High and the lack of deep penetration of the late season cold air outbreaks that cool the Atlantic (south of 30 N) and Gulf of Mexico. These coupled with low shear from La Nina will allow a large number of storms to get generated. There will also be more than average hurricanes, and I will predict 10, but above that number the increase in ocean mixing from the hurricanes themselves becomes self-limiting. I will also predict 4 major storms, of which two will make landfall, one near the Florida/Georgia border as a result of a restrengthening Bermuda High as the storm recurves, and another in the Upper Mid-Atlantic to Southern New England. So the Count is 18/10/4 Have fun... |