I see no reason to dispute TSR which I have found to be fairly reliable but I will average Colo. State and TSR and go with 16/8/4.
Last week's pattern looked very much like a summer one...early start to the season; maybe about a month early (busier July and August than normal) with as many as 8 before Labor day. If La Nina strengthens over the fall then that will support the numbers I have provided.
Who knows where they will go. The recent study published last week concerning analysis of overwash from major storms over an estimated several thousand year period said probability of a direct strike by a major (IV-V) is .3%...