I think it is reasonable to say 16/8/4. Looking at El Nino/LaNina only and looking in 2004-2005, I could actually be compelled to go higher. There were 14 in '04, but El Nino shut the season down after Jeanne in late September. As for 2005, it was a Nino neutral year. I do not propose something like 2005 because the trade winds have been to strong to allow for the level of ocean warming we saw in the Atlantic during 2005. Based on current and future forcast water temps, I believe we will see storms forming further in toward the CONUS...that may be a bad trend.