I was going to say 15 but decided to up it to 16. I think we have a shot at Pablo. Not very high confidence wise but either it's a busy season or it's not and the water is hot from what I have read and seen. Where they go? Don't know and tempted to call a lot of recurvature type storms in which case we could have a lot of majors but safely out at sea.

Very hard to call this far out. Dust kicks up usually this time of year but whether it stays there or not will be the teller if we have long trackers. I'd say a lot of storms forming around 50-55. A lot of Caribbean storms.

If the high builds in strong we could have lower storms that get further into the Gulf, it's been a while since the Western Gulf had to really worry.

One consistent thing you do see from the analog years in Dr. Gray's report 52, 64, 66, 95 and 2003 is that Florida got hit from the backside as some storm recurved on the SW side of the bermuda high. 2003 is hard to add in there but the west coast was affected by a storm cutting across the state as well. 2003 was a little bizarre and hardest to see a pattern. But... is compelling when you look at the charts from those years to see such patterns.. as well as a lot of dancing out at sea but Atlantic Canes.

So... I'll go with 16 7 and 4

Thanks for letting me join in and read all of your thoughts.