| CDMOrlando |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat May 12 2007 05:00 PM |
|
Re: The 2007 Outlook
|
2007 Prediction
This forecasts are based on statistical methodologies derived from past data. This is a valid methodology provided that the atmosphere continues to behave in the future as it has in the past. Qualitative adjustments are added to accommodate additional processes which may not be explicitly represented by the statistical analyses. This year these items includes:
1. The weak to moderate El Niño event that rapidly developed during August to October 2006 has now dissipated. Most of the ENSO forecast models indicate that neutral or cool ENSO conditions are likely for this upcoming summer/fall. The observed cooling during this time period in 2006-2007 is the strongest cooling on record.
2. A declined change back to "normal" active (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)) period dynamics. Unlike 2006 when both thermodynamic (i.e., sea surface temperatures, mid-level moisture) and dynamic factors (i.e., vertical wind shear, pre-existing vorticity) were less favorable for tropical cyclone formation and intensification, the conditions appear to reflect more conditions of the two very active seasons of 2004-2005.
Despite a fairly inactive 2006 hurricane season, it appears that the Atlantic basin is currently in an active hurricane cycle associated with a strong thermohaline circulation and an active phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This active cycle is expected to continue for another decade or two at which time we should enter a quieter Atlantic major hurricane period like we experienced during the quarter century periods of 1970-1994 and 1901-1925. Atlantic hurricanes go through multi-decadal cycles. Cycles in Atlantic major hurricanes have been observationally traced back to the mid-19th century, and changes in the AMO have been inferred from Greenland paleo ice-core temperature measurements going back thousand of years.
No. of Hurricanes 10
No. of Named Storms 19
No. of Hurricane Days 37
No. of Named Storm Days 89
Intense Hurricanes 5
Intense Hurricane Days 13
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity 194