Yesterday (07/04) TSR issued their revised forecast of seasonal activity in the Atlantic basin and lowered their expectations to 15/8/4. Given what is now expected for ENSO conditions, it would not surprise me at all to see them further lower their expectations again next month.

This morning NCEP issued their updated 6-month forecast of anticipated SST conditions. They now (once again) anticipate a strong La Nina to be in place by August and maintain it at strong to moderate strength for the remainder of the year. The forecast also continues the trend of slightly cooler than normal conditions off the southeast U.S. coast and in the eastern tropical Atlantic.

Latest 6-month SST Forecast

Coupled with a resultant increase in tropical trade winds, this usually translates to an active season - but not a highly active one. If the strong La Nina materializes, statistically there is only about a 12% chance for a highly active season.
Cheers,
ED