Tropical Storm Erin just off the southeast Texas coast is firing up new convection to the northeast of the center that could force some intensification just prior to landfall at sunrise on Thursday near Aransas Pass. Erin will be primarily a rain event for southern Texas.

Soon to be Hurricane Dean moving west in the central tropical Atlantic toward the central Caribbean islands. Dean is currently a small 'Charley'-like storm and Guadeloupe appears to be in the direct line of fire with impacts also likely on St Lucia and Martinique. With a strong western extention of the Atlantic ridge holding firm, Dean should continue on a generally west to west northwest track across the Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Probable impact on the northern Yucatan as a Cat III or Cat IV hurricane.

Normally long range forecasts can be problematic, but so far, this one seems to be behaving. The trough in the Bahamas, actually more of a developing mid to upper level cutoff low, is not expected to be strong enough to alter Dean's forecast path. The circulation around the cutoff low could actually help to maintain the southern portion of the western extention of the mid Atlantic ridge over Florida - and keep Dean on his west northwest track.

Elsewhere, the new wave exiting western Africa is worth an occasional glance. If anything develops from it by early next week, the track will probably be a little further to the north.
Cheers,
ED