June, July and most of August are in the record books - without a great deal of activity. A strong Atlantic ridge has kept the ITCZ well to the south of where it normally would be at this time of year. The tropical waves exiting the west coast of Africa have been small and mostly rather weak and a cool eastern tropical Atlantic still persists. The only significant shear problem has been the strong easterlies generated by the Atlantic ridge itself. Saharan dust has let up considerably. The current count for the season stands at 5/1/1.

MJO hasn't been much of a useful indicator this year and the eastern Atlantic SSTs are still expected to remain slightly on the cool side for the remainder of the year and a continuing La Nina is also anticipated for the rest of the year.

I'm leaning toward 6/4/1 for the remainder of the season.
Cheers,
ED