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We have what appears to be a book-end vortex attempting to develop in the vicinity of the NC/SC Coast. Both satellite and radar are beginning to show a cyclonic turning amid the on-going convection that has been lingering there for the past 18 to 24 hours. Radar: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=CLX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Satellite: ...See below This feature was originally triggered by a stalling frontal zone. Originally a baroclinic system altogether, this now appears to be entering a phase-transition because the air mass north to south through the axis of weak rotation is becoming less differentiable. This, while convection persists, needs to be monitored so long as we have a general southwest wind field beneath the axis of frontalysis and east-northeast wind above, which provides a natural cyclonic convergence in the low levels. Two key factors:
Whatever develops there it is likely to move very slowly and be there for awhile. The larger scale synoptic evolution does not provide for very many steering signals. There is a ridge tending to develop surface and aloft, moving off the Mid Atlantic and New England states and into the NW Atlantic, from day-3 through day-6. That should help pin whatever is there in place, or perhaps even push it SE or SW. Some of the models actually do suggest that occurring, showing a slow but gradual development only drifting around in that area. First step...get a system going. |