typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 02 2007 02:54 PM
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 98L

Quote:

Those latest 98L model tracks I'm seeing are a little...confusing to say the least. Gives new meaning to the term "spaghetti" models!

Is there any idea of a timeframe when we might see a "make or break" time for 98L? Or is it a system we should just sit tight and watch because no one honestly has an idea what it's going to do?




More like the 2nd question.. The fact that it has a rigorous low level circulation as discerned by high res visible imagery, and occasionally bursts convection over the SW quadrant suggests it is not a dead subject matter. Assuming the shear ever relaxes, this could resume a generation phase rather quickly..

So...yes indeed: A hurry up and wait scenario..

Also, regarding the models...I would not put too much stock in the modeling of these systems when they are in genesis phase. Fwiw, also, to exemplify much of this... Felix was not seen by the majority of guidance for most of the time and still, even now some guidance are only grudgingly admitting there is even anything there... Yet, we have a major hurricane with superior structure, as evidenced by multiple data sources.

I think the stunningly brilliant performance with Dean has folk's model expectations ratcheted up a tad but in reality...these models are not really that good in the genesis phases of TC growth.. They do better once the systems are already in play and can situate physically in initializations -- even then, the longer term model results would more likely do worse than they did with Dean. Dean's handling, overall, was a bit of a positive performance anomally.



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