Nothing has changed in terms of the deep layer analysis. The shear is still generally low. Oceanic heat content is of course high. There are some new convective elevments presently erupting near the southern aspect of what appears to be an emerging cyclonic circulation.

Unfortunately, we don't have a Floater assigned at this time. There may be data sources out there but I have been using: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html ...and then clicking the HDW-high radial button to show the upper level winds, which are divergent over the area -- i.e., favorable.

The models are suggesting this as still quite plausible but they take a long time to do so. Important to remind folks that the models are not really well-performed during genesis phases of TCs. So, they may belay this until they are better initialized. That may occur when a system becomes better defined and enters the initialization array.