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is 99l still attached to the front or is it a low on it's own yet?
It appears I am the only Met frequenting this thread...
The answer is no. The recent analysis is that the stationary boundary has washed out and we now have a low with a surface trough subtended S approximately 77W/30N.
This is encouraging for this system's genesis phase as it means the phase-transition is becomeing more purely barotropic and less baroclinic.
Moreover, another encouraging sign is that there is new convective elements exploding close to the center of circulation.
There is still shear impacting the area, however, so this is not in any rapid intensification by a long shot.
Models are still indicating development off the 00z runs. The GFS has a TC suggestion and the the oft' over-zealous CMC still tries to develop a significant TC. The NAM still suggests steady development while drifting the vortex ESE to the eastern Bahamas.
I have a funny feeling this system will make headlines! There is way more model support than not for this to spin up and the key for me is the evolving favorable UL wind field together with way more oceanic heat content than knows what to do with. At that time, about 66+ hours out, this is probably going to develop stronger than models in keeping with the usual 'gets deeper and more intense than expected' bias that pervades results of both machine and man expectations as of late.
Question...
How far south do you think 99L will move?Is there any chance of a katrina like track.Right now i see it drifting SE.
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