Well this has been a easy forecasting hurricane season so far. 99L might be alittle more difficult but still I feel straight forward. Lets look at it:

Right now its a LLC inbeded from a decay frontal trough. The center has picked up enough Tropical Characteristics to be at least subtropical in nature. Inhibiting factor so far on this is the shear. Models feel this will slow down and turned NW after meandering for a day...some say it will head back to florida. Lets look at why this wont come back to florida. 1 foremost is the ridge will not lie over the midatlantic...its more over the NW atlantic...moreso the ridge will slide to bermuda and have a SE-NW orientation with it. Now in the Nowcasting side of things we have a trough digging in just north of the system...this should swing 99L in the near term more NE later tonight into Weds....and as this trough weakens the Ridge should develop over the NW atlantic thru the end of the week and migrate south towards bermuda taking anything NW. I think NC has the best chance of getting brushed by this then SE N.E. but another cold front and stronger will slide into N.E. and probably keep the main center off shore. This is though more then 5 days out and anything really more then 3 days is unclear. Its not certain that this will move into the Outerbanks directly. As the 0Z runs come out later tonight and more data is collected things will be more clearer tomorrow. If that Nowcast shortwave was just a few deg ahead of 99L ...99L would of been more S and SE and would of posed more of a threat to Florida and SC. Right now.. its just not .

scottsvb