cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Feb 27 2008 07:23 AM
Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season

Seems extremely early still to be putting bets on the table for the 08 season; besides, it "only takes one." I suppose there are actually a few decent signals to be deciphered, nonetheless.

Given the persistent and rather strong La Nina, but with perhaps a trend for warming in the far eastern Pacific, and subsequent enhanced thunderstorm activity there with a few intrusions possible across old Mexico into the western Atlantic, cooler Gulf waters, unfavorably dry mid-long range trends continuing in the south/southeast, I might guess that activity is slow to get going in the GOM and Caribbean.

With that in mind, for now I'll give a nod to the hurricane seasons of '99 and 2000, with some decent tropical wave-inspired action kicking up cyclones from the Cape Verdes to the central Atlantic, and out to around/near the northern Antilles, with perhaps somewhat suppressed cyclogenesis west of there, overall.

13/8/3



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