Possible arrival time of 8PM Sarasota almost coincides with low tide of -.6 feet.

I live on Whitaker Bayou near the mouth; our greatest problem is getting the water out fast enough. The bayou drains an 8 square mile area. During the near miss of Donna in 1960 the bayou got to within maybe 6" vertically of the first floor doors. IIRC, Sarasota had winds of what we would now call Cat 1, up to about 100 mph.

A bit of history. In 1848 (??) one Michael Whitaker homesteaded near here and farmed. The hurricane of that year cut across the barrier island and cleared out a deep channel, know to this day as New Pass. (Even more history of the bayou, in June 1865 Judah P. Benjamin, the Sec of State of the Confederate States of America escaped to the Bahamas from Whitaker Bayou, probably on the other side.)