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Here an interesting excerpt from NWS puerto rico. 'SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC REMAINS VERY INTERESTING TODAY...WITH WELL ESTABLISHED MONSOON TROUGH HAVING BROKEN FREE OF AFRICAN MONSOON GYRE...THANKS TO A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW HAVING MOVED ACROSS THE CAPE VERDES PAST 24-36 HOURS...AND STRONG WLYS SOUTH OF TROUGH NOW FLOWING SW TO NE AND INTO E SIDE OF THIS BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW. A CLUSTER OF DEEP CNVTN AND MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING CAN BE SEEN ALONG ABOUT 9N 35W THIS MORNING ON S SIDE OF THIS EVOLVING FEATURE. WLYS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH NOW EXTEND FROM THE MID 50S TO THIS LARGE TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING 30W THIS MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES LOOKS TO BE ALONG 53/54W ATTM AND GAINING POSITIVE TILT WITH TIME...AS MID LEVEL JET REMAINS ALONG 18-20N. THIS ALIGNMENT CONTINUES TO BLEED VORTICITY AND MOISTURE TO THE AMBIENT FLOW...WITH LEADING EDGE OF RELATED MOISTURE JUST ABOUT TO REACH 60W ATTM. GFS NOT FORECASTING THIS AREA OF WEATHER TO REACH THE USVI UNTIL 06-12Z FRIDAY...BUT SOME LEADING MOISTURE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PAST 30-60 DAYS...STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO GUIDE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS APPROACHING WAVE TO THE WNW AND NW...AND LIFT N OF PUERTO RICO...JUST BRUSHING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC TURNING SEEN IN IR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT CENTERED ALONG 12N 52W DOES NOT APPEAR WELL INITIALIZED BY GFS...AND THIS MAY PASS JUST SOUTH OF PR FRI NIGHT-SAT TO IMPACT THE ISLAND MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THAN CURRENTLY SUGGESTED. AGAIN...THIS COMPLEX TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ATLC PROVING CHALLENGING FOR THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND SHOULD BE INTERESTING. |