Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Mon Aug 25 2008 09:31 AM
Area of Concern - Hurricane Gustav

Update - Tuesday, 08/26 - Noon (ET)
Earlier this morning Gustav attained hurricane strength - still with a movement to the northwest. Under the influence of a building ridge over Florida and the Bahamas, a turn to the west northwest should soon get underway and bring Gustav over the southwestern peninsula of Haiti with sustained winds of 80 knots. Gustav is then expected to pass just south of the south coast of Cuba, brush the western tip of Cuba (or pass just to the west of Cuba through the Yucatan Channel) and enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning as a major hurricane.

Update - Monday, 08/25 - 3PM (ET)
Based on Recon reports, NHC has upgraded TD 07 to TS Gustav - not totally unexpected based on the rapid organization of the cyclone. Environmental conditions still favor steady intensification and I still anticipate a more west northwest track to develop later today or tonight. The eye-like feature visible on satellite is well defined and upper level outflow is improving.

Original Post
Satellite imagery indicates that a Tropical Depression is forming in the central Caribbean Sea south of the Dominican Republic near 15N 69.5W at 25/12Z. The developing system is moving to the west northwest at 10 knots and this general motion should continue for the next few days. Central pressure is about 1006MB and winds are close to Tropical Depression strength as evident in the cyclonic turning from satellite. The system is moving into an extensive area of light wind shear with SSTs of 29C and steady intensification is likely. Folks in Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should closely monitor the development and movement of this future tropical cyclone since it could become a tropical storm within 24 hours. The next name on the list is Gustav.

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