Future Kyle or just a "pile"? I'll say this much, I as well as many have been pretty much "punch drunk" from the dizzying degree of activity over recent weeks. No doubt that storm weary people in the coastal Gulf state regions would be happy to see this season end right now. Unfortunately, I do not think this at all likely. Late this afternoon before even realizing that we had a new invest, I was looking for any hint of low to mid level turning east of the Lesser Antilles, in the midst of all the convection and blowoff. Then to see this well defined appearant mid level center a good 5 degrees west, just spinning there! I do not know what the earlier upper level 200mb runs looked like, but from what I can see from looking at the recent 18Z GFS 200mb run, conditions do not appear marginally better for development, they appear optimum. Between 36-48 hours, there appears to be a lazy anticyclone sitting over the E. Central Caribbean. Question now might be, will there be any tropical system there to deepen under it? The little model data available might likely suggest a overall WNW motion, but I have not analyzed the steering conditions much, and for that matter am still groggy from Ike, that I have yet to really even figure if 93L might move more with the deep layer or more lower level ( shallow BAM ) flow. If 93L follows the 12Z HWRF model, than I cannot see much if any development due to shear. If 93L were to move fairly quickly towards the west or NW, than essentially the same would likely occur. However, should 93L be able to simply maintain itself with perhaps a slow west to WNW motion for the next 24 to 36 hours, than I would tend to anticipate development.

Longer range steering? Possible digging trough sweeping the northern Gulf in time. Once again, timing would be everything from a Southern Bahamas recurve to a W. Caribbean to E. Gulf threat - just too early to tell what we are dealing with.