A small, well-formed area of surface low pressure that has developed along the tail-end of a decaying frontal zone has been exploding with deep thunderstorms within and near the center of circulation Sunday and into Sunday night. As of this post, the surface center is coming off the western Yucatan and entering the extreme southeastern Bay of Campeche. Given tonight's continuation, a tropical cyclone could be forming, and NHC has taken notice.

Early model runs suggest that its movement should continue west-northwestward, but an approaching trough from the northwest could deflect motion towards the upper-Mexico to Texas coastline; perhaps even recurve the feature, altogether.