As of around noon today, 98L has begun to grab a little more of my interest; both in terms of potential development and potential future motion. From my own satellite interpretation, I would estimate that a potential center point of "some" level of circulation exists around 14.9 and 67.3. On one hand, there seems little doubt that an overall appearance of high and mid cloud tops to the east of the wave access appear to be showing an overall gain in latitude. However I am seeing more evidence of what appears to be a low level center on the western edge of this blob, and curiously enough it appears to be moving at perhaps 280-290 degrees, or west to WNW. Given the recent slightly better organization, I have'nt had quite the duration of vis. satellite to really better determine this overall current motion, but simply what currently appears appearant to me now. What might be of greater importance however, is given the 20kt. shear, will this possible low level center simple be sheared apart leaving it to move off to the west and simply dissipate? The 200mb GFS from 12Z this morning certainly does weaken the shear and show the overall upper level winds becoming more anticyclonic in the central and west Caribbean as soon as about 24 hours from now. This would certainly provide better conditions for development ASSUMING that 1) this possible center of 98L remain below 17 latitude, and 2) that this possible center maintain itself as a potential dominent center.

Some models that I have looked at earlier this morning do show a short term WNW motion, with another camp of models tending toward a more immediate NW to NNW motion. At this time, practically all models still favor an overall recurvature towards the north near or over Puerto Rico, however will be very curious to see if by 0Z model run this evening, if they continue to have the same continuity. My guess in the short term is, that this possible center will continue to move WNW at about 5-10 mph, and models will be split on short term motion. Right now, I could'nt even imagine looking out beyond about 48 hours, because of the variable steering conditions that exist. It would seem possible however, that if a center point were to remain at or south of 17N, and continue to slowly move W to WNW, then in 48 hours or so, I could see it just nudging westward enough to then be somewhat caught under forecasted mid level ridging over the southeast Conus. If that were to happen, then any immediate recurvature would seem unlikely, at least until reaching the longitude of where the next short wave would eventually impact a bend towards the north, and eventually northeast.