Its time to start our annual assessment of anticipated tropical cyclone activity for the 2009 season in the Atlantic basin. Last year 43 site users offered their guesstimates for 2008 tropical cyclone activity - a record high level of participation. The 2008 season ended with 16 named storms of which 8 were hurricanes and 5 of those were major hurricanes (Cat III or stronger) and Mr Corkdork800 hit the totals right on the nose - nice job! Cieldumort (16/8/4) and HanKFranK (15/8/5) were only one off of the total numbers while FtLaudBob (17/9/5), Storm Hobbiest (16/7/4) and Hootie Hoo (15/8/4) were two off on the total numbers - all excellent forecasts! CSU and TSR were also at -2; both with forecasts of 15/8/4.

For the upcoming 2009 season, CSU and TSR are again equal in their outlooks - both are again forecasting an active season of 15/8/4 - and having no real disagreement with their logic, my forecast is similar at 14/8/4. With a weakening La Nina next spring expected to become ENSO neutral during the 2009 season, it looks like activity should remain above average. While the far western Atlantic is expected to be slightly cooler than normal, it is worth noting that the western Atlantic was also slightly cooler than normal during the 2008 season.

Initial best analog seasons appear to be 1990 and 2001 for SSTs and 1996 for pattern. I'll update this thread again in early April, but we'll keep it open until the 2009 season starts on June 1st. Here is your chance to take your own guess at the numbers for 2009. You can update them as you wish until the season starts and remember that forecast rational is not required, but please limit your responses to your actual forecasts and rationale (if any) - it makes it easier at the end of the season to compile the results and see who did well.
Cheers,
ED