Wouldn't I love to take another three months to toss my best guesses in. This season looks particularly vulnerable to several competing influences, of which there appear to be no clear dominant players at this point. I'm going with 11-5-2, and this is extremely low confidence, whereas last year at this time I was jubilant about my guesses. In this "active era" I almost can't believe I am going with such relatively low numbers, but the best writing on the wall seems to point that way - this month, anyway -

I have to add that the potential for a much more active Atlantic season seems about as likely as the potential for an even less active season. While a few numbers lower than 11, 5 & 2 would not be all that low climatologically-speaking, over the course of post-1994 era, anything under 11+5+2 would still be on the surprisingly low end.

As an aside, the real potential for the development of a solid El NiÃ±o during the heart of the season could not only shut off the Atlantic just about entirely, but really ramp up the strength and numbers in the central and eastern Pacific. The last time we saw a solid El NiÃ±o during the post 1994 era, 2002, the central+east pac birthed a very impressive 15 names, 8 of which became hurricanes, of which 6 became major hurricanes including a whopping 3 Cat 5s.

Prior to that stunner, 1997 also saw a very active central+east pac within the post-1994 era: 19 names, 9 hurricanes, and 7 majors!

1997 cooked up Hurricane Linda. With an estimated pressure of 902 mb, Linda was the most intense central-east pac hurricane on record.

Fast on the heels of Linda, Nora formed, and went on to become the first eastern pacific tropical cyclone to bring sustained tropical storm-force winds at the surface to the continental US since 1976. At the higher elevations of mountains in Utah, Nora's remnant circulation even sheared the tops off of hundreds of large trees in the Dixie National Forest.

Nora entering Arizona Sept 25, 1997

Hurricane Nora Storm Report
Prepared by the Flood Control District of Maricopa County, Az.