it is looking a little more disorganized at the moment. in my opinion its still extremely favorable for development. its just a matter of when. i think with its current state it may take a little longer then the rest of the day to get bumped to a td. im willing to guess overnight development unless it pulls itself together sometime with the next couple of hours. as far as the model runs. its way to soon to be looking at those. especially for a long range atlantic storm. usually i wait till its a tropical storm and its long well off from the west coast of africa before i start using the model runs for a general concensus. its really a crap shoot at the moment.