'Chances' aside, it *IS* a legitimate tropical cyclone that organized rather quickly from a weak tropical wave with sparse convection, and perhaps is on it's way to becoming a named storm that will go into the 2009 record books for all posterity.

Further, I realize the shear will weaken it into an open wave in a day or two. But as I mentioned above, if a decent low/mid-level circulation persists, it could well find itself in somewhat more 'friendly waters' by days 4 to 5. And the track for advisory #2 is nudged slightly to the left of the first one, so we will just have to see. The fat lady hasn't nearly begun to sing quite yet!

Y'all enjoy the calm and peace while you can. The 'canes will be back next year when El Nino subsides. But don't let your guard down just yet. As they say, it only takes one to spoil you day.