(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Mar 04 2010 12:29 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season

2010 Prediction

This forecasts are based on statistical methodologies derived from past data. This is a valid methodology provided that the atmosphere continues to behave in the future as it has in the past. Qualitative adjustments are added to accommodate additional processes which may not be explicitly represented by the statistical analyses. This year these items includes:

1. The El NiƱo that many of the ENSO forecast models indicate that neutral condition are likely for this upcoming late summer/fall. d.

2. A declined change back to "normal" active (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)) period dynamics. Unlike 2009 when both thermodynamic (i.e., sea surface temperatures, mid-level moisture) and dynamic factors (i.e., vertical wind shear, pre-existing vorticity) were less favorable for tropical cyclone formation and intensification..

Despite a fairly inactive 2009 hurricane season, it appears that the Atlantic basin is currently in an active hurricane cycle associated with a strong thermohaline circulation and an active phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This active cycle is expected to continue for another decade or two at which time we should enter a quieter Atlantic major hurricane period like we experienced during the quarter century periods of 1970-1994 and 1901-1925. Atlantic hurricanes go through multi-decadal cycles. Cycles in Atlantic major hurricanes have been observationally traced back to the mid-19th century, and changes in the AMO have been inferred from Greenland paleo ice-core temperature measurements going back thousand of years.

No. of Hurricanes 9
No. of Named Storms 15
No. of Hurricane Days 30
No. of Named Storm Days 69
Intense Hurricanes 3
Intense Hurricane Days 5
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity 154

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