(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri May 07 2010 02:22 PM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season

Apparently the El Nino is fading fast and things over in the Pacific are almost neutral now, and trending to a weak La Nina. I think this will be a key ingredient in allowing for more storms, and for more Cape Verde storms.

Accordingly, I think we'll have a slightly above average system, but with weaker trade winds, I see more storms forming further East than say 2005, and thus becoming more of an East coast and a fish spinner season.

Water temperatures are prime in the tropical Atlantic, dust doesn't seem to be in the cards, and the tropical Atlantic seems to be a prime breeding ground now with sheer being relatively low.

In 2010 I do think Bermuda will have their fair share of "threats", close calls, and then some this year. I think N Carolina is prime for a hurricane too. Let's hope it's not a major. Florida will be threatened too, but they will watch several storms pass them by to the East and they head towards the outer banks or for an ever quicker recurve EAST of the CONUS.

I see the Gulf Coast being hit by two strong TS/Cat one hurricanes; but I think the Gulf states will not see a major hit this season. These two will be storms of the homegrown variety.

In the Carribean I see poor Haiti/DR, getting hit as a storm fails to recurve in time. Cuba will not be under the gun from a major hit.

My overall numbers are 17/8/5.

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