Hey all. Getting ready for the new season....glad to see some familiar faces visiting already. It was very interesting for me to read about very warm water temps in the Atlantic after the very cold winter we had here in Florida. I had just assumed that it would be similarly cool. The GOM DID start out cool early on but has really caught up the past 3-4 weeks. I don't have much prediction expertise to go on but I will give it a shot. After reading the somewhat conflicting viewpoints posted so far, I will have to blend them together a bit.
I am thinking there will be a solid upswing this season with El Nino going away so quickly. The possibility of La Nina conditions forming so soon after also leads to a belief in a busy season. Was going to go with 14 named storms, 8 of which will be hurricanes and 4 of those that will be considered MAJOR storms, but I see (after going back through the thread) that srquirrely beat me to that. I will trust Ed a bit and knock mine down to 13/7/4 but with about 20 systems all together (including depressions). I am thinking that those that DO get organized will have plenty of energy to reach hurricane strength. Hope all of the really high forcasts are dead wrong as I sit here on this peninsula of land jutting right in the middle of hurricane alley!
Looking forward to all the the excellent expert commentary and advice that this site is known for! Even after over 40 years of following tropical weather, I find I learn a LOT here every season! Keep up the good work!!