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The last NHC position on the remnants of Agatha was 15.2N 91.8W at 30/06Z. Current satellite position estimate would place the mid-level reflection near 17.4N 86.6W at 31/13Z, or a movement to the east northeast (060 degrees). While the current CIMSS low-level steering currents would support a motion to the north, what is left of this system is not in the low levels (at least not yet). Moderate to strong westerly windshear exists immediately to the north of this feature and this shear is not expected to relax for quite a few days since it is associated with a southern branch of the jetstream (SFSU analysis). The system has a short window of about 24 hours (perhaps less) for additional development - after that timeframe the shear should eliminate any chance for this system to evolve. ED |