The season's first Tropical Depression has formed just north of the northeast coast of Honduras near 16.5N 83.5W. A CDO has been developing over the past hour and if trends continue, additional intensification to tropical storm strength is likely later tonight. As with any embryonic system that is still organizing, centerpoint adjustments are possible. The tropical cyclone has moved very little in the past couple of hours which does allow for consolidation and intensification to take place - and also makes a future track forecast somewhat uncertain, although impact with the Yucatan Peninsula is the most likely scenario. Stronger windshear in the Gulf of Mexico and brisk upper level westerly winds could make for an interesting long range track (and weekend).
ED