Good morning everybody! We're all eyeballing the tropical disturbance near the Dominican Republic extending north, east and southeast. We've also read the outlook and discussion via the NHC and they believe in the next 36 to 48 hours it has a 70 percent chance of becoming a depression. In the here and now the shear which happens to lie along its projected track is between 30 and 40 knots and while it is possible for a depression to develop it will not gain veritical depth and will remain a shallow system at best. The shear is forecast to weaken beyond 48 hours and as the disturbance moves closer to FL and into the GOM. It's best chance for development is in the GOM where for the moment shear is light.

The models continue to put the ridge axis between the Bermuda and Mid-Continental (Central US) north of the coast along the northern border states of the Deep South. The strength of these ridges is not as strong as previous weeks and the models continue to hint at a weakness between the two near LA & TX..and right through the oil slick.