Recon confirms that TS Karl has formed in the western Caribbean Sea - about halfway between northeast Honduras and western Cuba. Position at 14/20Z was 18.2N 83.9W with movement to the west northwest at 13 knots and a central pressure of 1001MB. I'd anticipate the initial track to continue toward the west northwest to the Yucatan coast north of Belize and across the peninsula into the northern Bay of Campeche. Some intensification is expected before landfall on the Yucatan coast with reintensification likely once the cyclone gets into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE
MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER

ED