Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Thu Sep 23 2010 11:13 AM
Area of Interest - Matthew

UPDATE: System becomes TD15 at 23/18Z and TS Matthew at 21Z. Track forecast pretty much as anticipated.

Invest 95L developed much better organizational structure overnight and with light windshear and a large area of 30C SSTs, eventual development seems likely. At 23/00Z, NHC placed the system at 12.8N 71.6W with 30 knot winds and a pressure of 1007MB. At 23/12Z the system was pegged at 13.5N 74.8W by NHC and at 23/14Z there seems to be some consolidation taking place near 14.1N 75.7W. As the system reformed further north away from the South American coast, its chances for development have increased with a Tropical Depression likely either later this evening or on Friday.

Movement over the weekend should be to the west northwest at a rather slow rate. With high pressure moving off the mid-Atlantic coast, steering currents will become quite weak and future motion is highly uncertain. This developing system could be around for quite awhile because no matter where it ends up going its not going to do it quickly.

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