Invest 96L is slowly becoming better organized this morning. System is located south of the Isle of Pines, Cuba, near 20N 83W at 28/12Z, moving north to north northeast (020 degrees) at 9 knots with sustained winds well east of the center at 30 knots and pressure down to about 1000MB. Formation of a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely today.

The system will be crossing a narrow and rather flat portion of western Cuba very early Wednesday morning and should be located about 35 miles offshore east central Florida by Thursday morning. Models indicate a 50 knot system at that time, however, that may be a bit on the high side. The Keys and southern and east central portions of the Florida peninsula can expect heavy rain and windy conditions on Wednesday, Wednesday evening and Thursday morning with conditions improving on Thursday as the storm merges with a frontal zone just offshore the east coast and heads toward the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday as an extratropical system.

Since the system is likely to be more of a hybrid in nature, and because of strong southwesterly windshear along the coast, the strongest winds should remain east of the center. Although the bulk of the system will remain to the east of the peninsula, strong easterly winds over-running the weak frontal zone could create zones of heavy rain over portions of the southern half of the peninsula.
ED