A tropical cyclone (not yet designated) formed last night near the northeast border of Honduras and Nicaragua. At 11/18Z the cyclone was centered just north of the northeast coast of Nicaragua near 15.7N 83.7W with surface winds close to or slightly in excess of 35 knots as reported by AF recon and a central pressure of 1001MB. With no detectable steering currents in the area, a slow crawl toward the northwest is likely for the next few days. SST is 28C, and with no windshear of consequence, slow intensification is possible. I would anticipate that tropical storm warnings will soon be issued for portions of Honduras, Belize, the eastern Yucatan, and perhaps portions of eastern Nicaragua. Because the system is nearly stationary, heavy rainfall and flooding are likely in those areas. The next name on the list is Paula.
ED

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA