You are correct, sir! I took a quick glance at the 12Z package today. Paula won't be going anywhere quickly, especially if the upcoming cutoff low over the New England area and associated longwave trough don't pick Paula up. Interesting feature is the upper ridge axis and possible closed upper high in either the Central or SW GOM behind the departing trough and near the cyclone which should keep shear to a minimum if the location verifies. It appears it's the next progressive and deeper shortwave is near day 7 that is likely to move Paula across FL. I'll know more when I look at tonight's 00Z package.