(Storm Tracker)
Tue Nov 30 2010 03:00 AM
Re: Initial Outlook for the 2011 Atlantic Season

Though nearly "burnt' out" from the busy year we are now concluding, I'll go ahead and stick out my ostrich neck out and guess that next year will start with an uncommon April or May T.S. Furthermore, will also speculate that Northern Gulf Coast regions will see a good deal more activity over all. Not really sure how E. Atlantic SST's will impact the overall season, but suffice it to say that assuming favorable conditions from about 60 degrees and westward exist, this could yield more undeveloped waves cross the Atlantic, only to potentially form "closer to home". This said, and with the addition of La Nina ( or at minimum waning Moderate La Nina ) conditions, I am a little more "bullish" in my early projection and will guess 2011 to have 15 named storms, of which 9 will reach hurricane intensity ( 3 of which will be major ).

Though next year could prove to have less overall intense storms, I am more concerned as to the overall number of storms that may ultimately impact the U.S. The other normal questions we can only speculate on. Such as what will the long wave pattern be or what may the upper air conditions be like. Finally, there is one other wild card that could end up impacting the later half of next years season. Will our strong La Nina simply fade to neutral conditions or possibly swing into an El Nino pattern?

Hmmm, so many questions. Fortunately for me, I'll soon have a number of 50 degree South Florida nights to help me kick back and ponder over it all. Nothin' like a good cigar and a glass of wine outside by the soft glow of the Chiminea's fire, to help come up with all the answers! Most of them likely wrong, but thats okay too.......

To those who actively post their thoughts and observations here, the site's administrators, and the many more who simply choose to "keep tabs" on developing events.....Best Wishes and may you all have a peaceful and safe holiday season.

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center